Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)

Turinys

  1. Contact
  2. Metadata update
  3. Statistical presentation
  4. Measurement unit(s)

  5. Reference period
  6. Institutional mandate
  7. Confidentiality
  8. Release policy
  9. Frequency of dissemination
  10. Accessibility and clarity
  11. Methodological documentation

  12. Quality management
  13. Relevance
  14. Accuracy and reliability
  15. Timeliness and punctuality
  16. Coherence and comparability
  17. Coherence
  18. Response burden

  19. Data revision

  20. Statistical processing
  21. Comments and other information


1 Contact
1.1 Contact organisation

Statistics Lithuania

1.2 Contact organisation unit

Price Statistics Division

1.3 Contact name

Dalia Skirelienė

1.4 Contact person function

Chief specialist

1.5 Contact mail address

29 Gedimino Ave., LT-01500 Vilnius, Lithuania

1.6 Contact email address

dalia.skireliene@stat.gov.lt

1.7 Contact phone number

+370 5 236 4741

1.8 Contact fax number

+370 5 236 4791

2 Metadata update
2.1 Metadata last certified

2020-02-14

2.2 Metadata last posted 2020-09-09
2.3 Metadata last update 2020-09-07
3 Statistical presentation
3.1

Description of statistical information (main characteristics, purpose)

HICPs are calculated according to a methodology harmonised across the European Union (EU). The HICPs produced by each EU member state are used to measure inflation in the EU, make international comparisons between the EU Member States, implement the monetary policy of the European Central Bank, calculate the European index of consumer prices, the Monetary Union index of consumer prices, and the European Economic Area index of consumer prices. The country’s compliance with the price stability criterion (referred to in Article 140 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and the Protocol No 13 on the Convergence Criteria) is assessed taking into consideration the HICP-based inflation rate.

3.2

Classifications(s), classification system

European Classification of Individual Consuption According to Purpose - ECOICOP

3.3 Sector coverage

All households residing in the country, including non-residents and foreign visitors; consumer goods and services purchased by households.

3.4 Statistical concepts and definitions

Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is a consumer price index calculated based on the EU-wide harmonised methodology. The HICP can be regarded as an indicator showing the amount the average consumer would have to spend in a given year to buy the same basic goods and services for which one would have to pay 100 monetary units in the reference period.

Consumer price index (CPI) is a relative indicator reflecting the overall change in prices for consumer goods and services purchased by households to their consumption needs over a certain period time. It is the main indicator of consumer price inflation.

Price index – a relative statistical indicator showing the price change over a certain period of time.

Index reference period – the reference period with the index equated to 100 points. Having the time series of price indices, calculated with a single index reference period, it is possible to determine the price indices for different periods.

Price reference period –  period based on the price level at which the overall change in prices is measured.

Weight reference period – period the data of which are used to calculate index weights.

Weight – the comparative part of household consumption expenditure expressed as a per mille for the acquisition of products and services attributed to a certain elementary aggregate of the HICP. The greater the weight, the stronger the effects of the price changes at a certain classification level of products or services on the price change at a higher classification level of products or services.

3.5 Statistical unit

Consumer goods and services that are purchased by all residential and non-residential households in trade and service enterprises and local units for the satisfaction of individual consumption needs.

3.6 Statistical population

Target population of enterprises and local units covers trade and service enterprises and local units of all forms of ownership. In 2020 , about 4 300 trade and service enterprises and local units were selected for the statistical survey on prices for consumer goods and services.

Statistical population of goods and services covers goods and services purchased by households within the economic territory of the country. In 2020, target sample is comprised of 952 represantative consumer goods and services.

Statistical population of households covers households including institutional households, non-residents and foreign visitors within the economic territory of the country.

The household sector to which the definition refers includes all individuals or groups of individuals irrespective of, in particular, the type of area in which they live, their position in the income distribution and their nationality or residence status.

The HICP covers household monetary consumption expenditure within the economic territory of the country.

3.7 Reference area

HICP covers the entire economic territory of Lithuania. The economic territory consists of the geographic territory administered by the central government. Within this territory, people, goods and capital circulate freely. 18 territorial units (10 counties and 8 regional centres) representing the whole country are selected for the price survey. Prices are collected in small and medium towns and 5 cities with the population ranging from about 5 500 (in small towns) to 540 000 (in cities) people. Prices for food products, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages and tobacco are additionally collected in 10 villages.

3.8 Time coverage

HICP time series are available since January 1996.

3.9 Base period

The index reference period of HICP and its sub-indices is 2015 (2015 = 100).

4

Measurement unit(s)

Index;

Rates of change in prices – per cent; weights – per mille, prices – EUR.

5 Reference period

Month

6 Institutional mandate
6.1 Legal acts and other agreements

Regulation (EU) 2016/792 ot the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 May 2016 on harmonised indices of consumer prices and the house price index, and repealing Council Regulation (EC) No 2494/95

20 specific regulations implementing Council Regulation (EC) No 2494/95 and remaining applicable for a transition period ending on the date of application of the implementing acts first adopted, governing such issues as the quality of weights, construction and transmission of sub-indices, coverage of goods and services, geographical and population coverage, minimum standards for the treatment of tariffs, insurance, health, education and social protection services, timing of entering prices in the HICP, treatment of price reductions, treatment of service charges, that are proportional to transaction values, revisions policy, new index reference period, temporal coverage of price collection, sampling replacement and quality adjustment procedures, treatment of seasonal items, introduction of owner-occupied housing price indices, transmission and dissemination of harmonised indices of consumer prices at constant tax rates have been adopted.

6.2

Data sharing and exchange

7 Confidentiality
7.1

Confidentiality policy

In the process of statistical data collection, processing and analysis and dissemination of statistical information, Statistics Lithuania fully guarantees the confidentiality of the data submitted by respondents (households, enterprises, institutions, organisations and other statistical units), as defined in the Confidentiality Policy Guidelines of Statistics Lithuania.

7.2 Confidentiality - data treatment

Description of Statistical Disclosure Control Methods, approved by Order No DĮ-124 of 27 May 2008 of the Director General of Statistics Lithuania.

Integrated Statistical Information System Data Security Regulations and Rules for the Secure Management of Electronic Information in the Integrated Statistical Information System, approved by Order No DĮ-240 of 16 September 2020 of the Director General of Statistics Lithuania.

8 Release policy
8.1 Release calendar

 Statistical information is published on the Official Statistics Portal according to the Official Statistics Calendar

8.2

Link to the release calendar

Official Statistics Calendar

8.3

Release procedure

Statistical information is published following the Official Statistics Dissemination Policy Guidelines and Statistical Information Preparation and Dissemination Rules (only in Lithuanian).

9 Frequency of dissemination

Monthly

10 Accessibility and clarity
10.1 News release

A news release is published on the 7th working day after the end of the reporting month.

 

10.2

Publications

Annual publications Lithuania in Figures and Statistical Yearbook of Lithuania.

10.3

Databases

Database of Indicators (Economy and finance -> Price indices, changes and prices -> Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), price changes, HICP at constant tax rates and index weights).

10.4

Access to micro data

Microdata are available and provided for scientific purposes according to the provisions set in the Description of Procedures for the Provision of Confidential Statistical Data for Scientific Purposes. More information is available on the Official Statistics Portal, at Data for scientific purposes.

Public data files: users are also provided with opportunity to access public files with statistical data on observation units. More information is available on the Official Statistics Portal, at Public data files.

10.5 Other

11

Methodological documentation

Price indices, changes and prices

12 Quality management
12.1 Quality assurance

The quality of statistical information and its production process is ensured by the provisions of the European Statistics Code of Practice and ESS Quality Assurance Framework

In 2007, a quality management system, conforming to the requirements of the international quality management system standard ISO 9001, was introduced at Statistics Lithuania. The main trends in activity of Statistics Lithuania aimed at quality management and continuous development in the institution are established in the Quality Policy. Monitoring of the quality indicators of statistical processes and their results and self-evaluation of statistical survey managers is regularly carried out in order to identify the areas which need improvement and to promptly eliminate the shortcomings.

12.2 Quality assessment

Eurostat periodically verifies the compliance of the Lithuanian HICP with the EU requirements and performs quality monitoring. The quality of the information complies with the accuracy, timeliness and punctuality, comparability and compatibility requirements. In 2006, Eurostat verified the compliance of the Lithuanian HICP with the EU requirements and evaluated it as appropriate.

In March 2013, the compliance of the Lithuanian HICP with the EU requirements was checked by Eurostat, the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and the European Central Bank. During the assessment of compliance it was verified that Lithuanian HICP meets the EU requirements, the quality of consumer price statistics was improved (see the compliance reports).

A self-assessment is periodically performed by the manager of the statistical survey to indicate the quality of the indicator.

13 Relevance
13.1 User needs

The main users of statistical information are the institutions of the European Commission, the European Central Bank, state authorities, international organisations, the media, research and business communities, students and other users whose needs are satisfied without a breach of the confidentiality principle. The HICP is an instrument for forecasting and analysing the economic development, consumer market, preparation of convergence reports, assessment of compliance with the Mastricht price stability criterion and other needs.

13.2 User satisfaction

From 2005, user opinion surveys have been conducted on a regular basis. Official Statistics Portal traffic is monitored, website visitor opinion polls, general opinion poll on the products and services of Statistics Lithuania, target user group opinion polls and other surveys are conducted. In 2007, the compilation of a user satisfaction index was launched. The said surveys are aimed at the assessment of the overall demand for and necessity of statistical information in general and specific statistical indicators in particular.

More information on user surveys and their results is available in section User surveys on the Statistics Lithuania website.

13.3

Completeness of statistical information

The overall price indices and rates of change in prices for consumer goods and services by all ECOICOP categories and special aggregates, harmonised indices of consumer prices at constant tax rates are published.

13.3.1

Data completeness - rate

100 per cent of information produced in accordance with the Official Statistics Programme Part I is published.

14 Accuracy and reliability
14.1 Overall accuracy

The accuracy of data sources is monitored by assessing the methodological soundness of price and weight data sources according to the general system of measuring and monitoring the quality of performance in place at Statistics Lithuania. The main errors occur due to incorrect recording, entering of prices, selection of a measuring unit, as well as mismatch of the selected product or service to the description of the representative product.

The inaccuracy of the household budget statistical survey data, which are used for the detailing of the weights, is determined by the tendency for households to hide certain expenditure (e.g. on alcoholic beverages and tobacco products) and refusal of some households to participate in the household budget statistical survey.

To reduce the number of price recording and entering errors, verification functions are installed in the mobile devices used for price recording, primary data control programs used at the Price Statistics Division are improved, enterprises and local units in territorial units are visited to carry out follow-up checks in local units to confirm the reported prices.

14.2

Sampling error

14.3

Non-sampling error

Non-sampling errors are not calculated. Efforts are made to reduce non-sampling errors through the continuous improvement of the methods applied and the process of the statistical survey on prices of consumer goods and services (e.g. the use of mobile devices for the collection of prices helps to avoid coding and entry errors and the accuracy of transmitted statistical data is checked).

14.3.1

Non-response error

14.3.1.1

Unit non-response rate

14.3.1.2

Item non-response rate

Every month a part of prices is not registered due to seasonality of some products and other reasons, such as supply interruptions, termination or temporary suspension of activity of trade or service enterprises and local units, termination of production or import of a product. Missing prices are estimated using appropriate methods.

During the out-of-season period, prices of seasonal products are estimated using two methods: counter-seasonal estimation and all-seasonal estimation. According to the EU recommendations, these methods can be applied by estimating prices of seasonal products or price indices. In Lithuania, the prices of seasonal products are estimated when producing the HICP.

The prices of those goods and services whose prices were not recorded for other reasons are estimated by the following methods:

– the price of the previous month may be repeated if the price of the same product in other enterprises or local units has not changed or has changed very inconsiderably. However, the price may be estimated using this method only for two consecutive months; afterwards, a new product must be selected to replace the product that is no longer available;

– in an enterprise or local units, a missing price may be estimated using a short-term price ratio of the same product computed on the basis of the prices recorded in other enterprises or local units or territorial units, i.e. the price of the previous month is multiplied by a short-term price ratio;

– the missing price may be estimated on the basis of a short-term price ratio of a similar product or product group, i.e. the price of the previous month is multiplied by a short-term price ratio of a similar product or a short-term price ratio of a higher level.

2020, months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Prices not registered, (prices were estimated), %

7.4

7.4

21.7

11.7

10.1

7.0

8.4

8.3

 

 

 

 

of which

due to withdrawal of seasonal products from the market

3.9

4.0

4.9

3.1

3.3

3.0

3.4

4.3

 

 

 

 

for other reasons

3.5

3.4

16.8

8.6

6.8

4.0

5.0

4.0

 

 

 

 

Prices not registered, (prices were estimated), due COVID-19 pandemic, %       19.0 9.7 0.8 0.8          
15 Timeliness and punctuality
15.1

Timeliness

The HICP is published on the 7th working day after the end of the reporting month.

15.2

Punctuality

Statistical information is published in accordance with an Official Statistics Calendar. In case of delay, users are notified in advance by indicating the reason and a new date of publication.

15.2.1

Percentage of statistical information released on time

100 per cent

16 Coherence and comparability
16.1

Geographical comparability

Statistical information is comparable across the EU.

16.2

Comparability over time

HICP data are fully comparable over time. There have been several improvements in the methodology since the HICP has been introduced with the aim of implementation of certain requirements for the production of the HICP. Implementation of new rules and methods may have introduced breaks in time series.

16.2.1

Length of comparable time series

Since 1996

17 Coherence
17.1

Cross-domain coherence

The domestic concept of the HICP coincides with the concept of the national accounts. Differences between the HICP and the CPI:

Purpose. The HICP is used for the measurement of inflation in the EU and international comparisons, calculation of European index of consumer prices, Monetary Union index of consumer prices and European Economic Area index of consumer prices. The country’s compliance with the price stability criterion referred to in Article 140 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union is assessed taking into consideration the HICP-based inflation rate. The CPI is used for the measurement of inflation on the national scale and serves as a principal tool in indexation.

Coverage. In addition to the monetary consumption expenditure of country’s residents, the HICP covers the expenditure of non-residents and that of foreign visitors within the economic territory of the country. The CPI covers only the consumption expenditure of the residents of the country within the economic territory of the country. The HICP does not cover household expenditure on games of chance, while the CPI does cover it.

Weights. Due to the different coverage of consumption expenditure, different weighting systems are used for the calculation of the HICP and the CPI. This is the main factor causing differences in the value of indices.

Classifications. The HICP is compiled on the basis of the ECOICOP classification. The CPI is compiled on the basis of the COICOP 1999 (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose).

17.2

Internal coherence

HICPs are internally coherent. Lower-level price indices are aggregated to higher-level price indices, using the monetary consumption expenditure structure as weights.

18

Response burden

The preparation of statistical data for the calculation of the HICP does not result in the increase of the administrative burden for respondents, because price data calculated by the CPI are used .

19

Data revision

19.1

Revision policy

The revision policy of Statistics Lithuania is provided in the document General Principles behind the Performance, Analysis and Announcement of Revisions of Statistical Indicators.

19.2

Revision practice

According to the Commission Regulation (EC) No 1921/2001 of 28 September 2001, officially published HICP time series may be revised due to updates or improvements of information and detected errors. Corrections are made if it is likely that the influence of the error on the average relative yearly change of prices is equal to or higher than 0.1 percentage point. Users are informed about the changes and results immediately. Revisions of HICP due to changes in methodological and harmonised rules are not required.

In order to achieve better harmonisation of the interim HICP for 1996–2000, implement the requirements set in Council Regulation (EC) No 1687/98 concerning the extended HICP coverage of goods and services and the Commission Regulation (EC) No 1749/1999 concerning sub-indices of the HICP, improve the quality of the HICP, as well as to provide more detailed COICOP/HICP sub-indices for users, Statistics Lithuania performed a revision of time series and recalculated the HICP for 1996–2000. HICPs for 1996–2000 were linked with the HICPs for 2001–2005, and the time series of the revised HICP were composed using the reference period 1996 (1996 = 100). The revision of the previous periods’ HICP influenced the values of the later period’s HICPs to some extent.

Pursuant to Commission Regulation (EU) No 2015/2010 of 11 November 2015 amending Regulation (EC) No 1708/2005 laying down detailed rules for the implementation of Council Regulation (EC) No 2494/95 as regards the common index reference period for the harmonised index of consumer prices, Statistics Lithuania recalculated the HICP time series according to the new index reference period 2015 = 100, and reclassified some of the products according to more detailed ECOICOP level 5.

19.2.1

Average of the change obtained during the revision

20 Statistical processing
20.1

Statistical data source

The main statistical data source for the HICP is a monthly statistical survey on prices of consumer goods and services. Information published in the legal acts of public and local authorities, catalogues, pricelists, on the websites of enterprises is also used as a statistical data source.

The principal source for the development of a comparative weighting system is the data on household monetary expenditure for the acquisition of consumer goods and services obtained from a household budget survey and national accounts data. Other statistical data sources are also used for the development of the weighting system: non-observed expenditure of private and institutional households, foreign visitors and non-residents of Lithuania is assessed using domestic trade, transport and service, tourism, energy, social statistics and information provided by other institutions and enterprises; monetary consumption expenditure of households and foreign visitors is detailed on the basis of industrial, domestic and foreign trade, educational, transport and service, tourism statistics, information and data from other institutions and enterprises.

20.2

Periodicity of statistical data collection

Monthly

20.3

Statistical data collection

Most prices of consumer goods and services are recorded by price collectors (96 per cent of all price quotations collected) visiting trade and service enterprises and local units selected for the price survey. Prices for cold water, heat energy, rent of apartments within the municipal stock of dwellings, refuse and sewerage collection, elevator operation, local road transport, some educational and social services are collected by price collectors on the basis of the legal acts of local authorities. Prices for some goods and services are collected by phone. Prices for electricity, natural gas, information processing equipment, cars, technical inspection of vehicles, railway and air transport, sanatorium, post, telecommunications, package holidays, financial, some educational, notary and certain other services are collected by the specialists of the Price Statistics Division of Statistics Lithuania (4 per cent of all price quotations collected) on the basis of relevant legal acts, pricelists and information published on the websites of enterprises. Prices for insurance services are collected through a monthly electronic statistical questionnaire KA-05, prices for rent from real estate agencies – using quarterly electronic statistical questionnaire KA-12.

20.4

Statistical data validation

Price collectors carry out verification and editing of the primary price data received. When entering the data into a mobile device the price collectors perform a data entry check and correct the errors found.

The Price Statistics Division carries out logical verification and editing of the statistical data received and confirmation of the data relevance for further calculations. The data received are compared with the data of the previous months, the comments and explanations of price collectors and the changes in technical or qualitative characteristics of goods and services are analysed. For verification of the data, a computer program is used.

The specialists from the Price Statistics Division periodically visit territorial units to carry out follow-up checks in enterprises and local units to confirm the reported prices. Resulting tendencies of changes in prices are compared with those of domestic producers. Information about the factors which influence the price changes is followed in the press, surveys and reports published by other institutions.

20.5 Data compilation

A HICP compilation methodology and requirements of regulations are followed.

Following the elementary price index compilation methods, average prices are used for the calculation of short-term price ratios of representative consumer goods and services. Elementary price indices of the lowest level are computed at two stages. At the first stage, calculations are made to derive the ratio of arithmetic averages of retail prices for each representative product of each territorial unit. The short-term price ratio (reference month compared with the previous month) obtained is multiplied by the long-term price ration for the representative product in the previous month. Thus, a long-term price ratio (reference month compared with previous year december month) for the representative product in the reporting period in the specific territorial unit is obtained.

At the second stage, a certain zone of the country is attributed to each territorial unit in which prices are surveyed. A specific weight of the population of each zone in the total population of the country is determined. Using the specific weights of the population, a weighted arithmetic average of long-term price ratios in 18 territorial units, i.e. an individual price index at the national level, is calculated for each representative product.

Individual price indices of representative products are aggregated into higher-level price indices and the country’s all-items HICP according to the modified Laspeyres formula using reference weights (the proportion of monetary consumption expenditure for the acquisition of a product in the total household monetary consumption expenditure in the reference period). Product price indices are aggregated into the price indices of classes, groups and divisions of the ECOICOP.

Survey methodology (only in Lithuanian)

20.6 Adjustment

Primary data on prices are adjusted for quality changes. In case of failing to collect the price, the product is replaced by another – similar – one. If the quality of the newly selected product significantly differs from that of the replaced one, the assessment of the impact of the change in quality on the increase or decrease in the price has to be made. To maintain comparability between the price of the replaced and replacing product, the price of the replaced product in the previous month has to be adjusted by eliminating the impact of the change in quality. In order to reduce the number of items adjusted in terms of quality, products are grouped into product segments by consumption purpose. Brand strata are broken down by quality level, visibility, price level. Several methods can be used for quality adjustment: expert adjustment, option pricing, bridged overlap, quantity adjustment, hedonic. Minor changes in quality are disregarded.

21

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